Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 Ph.D student of geography and urban planning , Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz,Ahvaz,Iran
2 Professor Department of Geography & Urban Planning, Faculty of Letters and Humanities, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Iran
Abstract
Climate change is a serious threat to sustainable urban development and puts many cities at risk. Urban areas have unique characteristics that make residents and their assets particularly vulnerable to climate change. This research considers the implications of climate change for social well-being and economic development in urban areas, with a particular focus on understanding the impacts of climate change on the most vulnerable populations. The current research is applied-theoretical in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical and exploratory in terms of its nature and method. The collection of data and information was done through the study of library-documentary sources, field observations, and referring to organizations in Ahvaz City. Quantitative models, software, statistical analysis, and structural analysis were used to analyze the data.
In the first part of the research, in order to analyze the climate change trend in the Ahvaz metropolis, the important parameters (temperature, precipitation) of the Ahvaz synoptic station were examined during the period (1340-1400). The time trend of changes in the aforementioned climatic parameters was calculated using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test in monthly, seasonal, and annual time series during the studied statistical period. The results showed that during the 60-year process, climate change has shown itself in the city of Ahvaz in the form of an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, and it has had consequences for the metropolis of Ahvaz. Then, using the system dynamics model, the cause-and-effect relationships of the variables were examined. The results of the qualitative modeling and investigation of the cause-and-effect relationship showed that the climate changes in Ahvaz city have various socio-economic consequences.
Keywords
Main Subjects
)