Document Type : Original Article

Authors

• saeed kian poor ¹
• reza shamsolahi ²
• maryam darbidi ³
• Malek Khabazi khangh ⁴

¹ member faculty of pnu

² Phd. Student Economic

³ Economic

⁴ economic

Abstract

This study examined the impact of macroeconomic variables on urban housing demand in Iran from 1998 to 2022. The objective was to identify the economic factors affecting housing demand. Annual time-series data were collected from official sources such as the Central Bank of Iran and the Statistical Center of Iran, with the land price index used as a proxy for housing demand. The ARDL model was employed to analyze long-term and short-term relationships, alongside a simplified hedonic approach and the Random Forest machine learning algorithm. Findings revealed that the number of banking facilities had a significant positive impact on housing demand, while inflation negatively affected real housing demand. Scenario analysis for 2025–2031 indicated the influence of macroeconomic policies on housing demand. The study provided valuable tools for housing market policymaking and suggested that controlling inflation and increasing access to facilities could improve market balance.

Keywords

• Housing Demand
• Macroeconomic Variables
• Land Price
• Inflation
• Banking Facilities

Main Subjects

• Urban Planning