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Scenario planning and explanation of the key drivers affecting the resilience of metropolitan areas against the earthquake crisis

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran

10.22034/jprd.2025.64086.1143

Abstract

Vulnerability to earthquakes is a big issue in the cities of different countries, which has harmful consequences in different dimensions. By identifying the effective factors on reducing vulnerability and resilience against earthquakes, crisis management and reducing the consequences of this hazard can be achieved. Examining the state of vulnerability of different areas of Tabriz metropolis during the earthquake shows that the plans, forecasts and measures taken to make these areas resilient were not that effective. Therefore, the aim of this research is to identify the drivers effective in reducing the vulnerability and resilience of Tabriz metropolis against earthquakes and to develop possible scenarios for the horizon of 1422. This research is applied in terms of purpose, analytical-exploratory in terms of nature, descriptive-survey in terms of data collection method and mixed (quantitative-qualitative) data analysis. The statistical population of the research is 35 interdisciplinary experts in the fields of vulnerability and resilience and the future research approach, who were selected with the purposeful sampling method. In this research, 44 primary factors were extracted and With the structural analysis in the Mikmak software, eleven main factors have been identified as key drivers effective in reducing vulnerability and resilience. Based on the results of the factor impact matrix, out of a total of 3,398 direct impact factors, the variables of the physical sector have had the greatest impact on the future vulnerability of different areas of Tabriz metropolis against the earthquake crisis. Finally, by determining the critical uncertainties through the consensus index as well as the inductive method, three golden, static and critical scenarios have been obtained for the horizon of 1422.

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هدف:  هدف این پژوهش شناسایی پیشران­های کلیدی مؤثر بر کاهش آسیب­پذیری و تاب‌آوری مناطق مختلف کلان‌شهر تبریز در برابر بحران زلزله و تدوین سناریوهای محتمل برای افق 1422، می­باشد.

روش پژوهش: این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی، ازنظر ماهیت پژوهش، تحلیلی- اکتشافی، ازنظر روش گردآوری داده­ها به ‌صورت توصیفی-پیمایشی و تجزیه‌ و تحلیل داده­ها به‌صورت آمیخته (کمی-کیفی) می­باشد. جامعه آماری پژوهش گروه 35 نفری از خبرگان متخصص میان‌رشته‌ای در زمینه‌های آسیب­پذیری و تاب‌آوری و رویکرد آینده‌ پژوهی هستند که با روش نمونه­گیری هدفمند انتخاب‌شده‌اند .در این پژوهش ابتدا با تکنیک پویش محیطی و دلفی طی دو راند، 44 عامل اولیه استخراج‌شده و با تحلیل ساختاری در نرم­افزار میک­مک، یازده عامل اصلی به­عنوان پیشران­های کلیدی مؤثر بر کاهش آسیب­پذیری و تاب‌آوری مورد شناسایی قرارگرفته­اند.

نتایج: بر اساس نتایج حاصل از ماتریس اثرگذاری عوامل، از مجموع 3398 رابطه اثرگذاری مستقیم عوامل، متغیر­های بخش کالبدی، بیشترین تأثیر را بر آینده آسیب­پذیری مناطق مختلف کلان‌شهر تبریز در برابر بحران زلزله داشته­اند. در نهایت نیز با تعیین عدم قطعیت‌های بحرانی از طریق شاخص اجماع و همچنین روش استقرایی، سه سناریو طلایی، ایستا و بحرانی برای افق 1422 به دست آمده است. همچنین نتایج نشان داد سناریوی طلایی یا همان ارتقا تاب‌آوری کلان‌شهر تبریز در برابر بحران زلزله زمانی که وضعیت عوامل ساختاری-کالبدی با روند مطلوب مواجه بوده و عوامل خدمات و تأسیسات زیرساختی در راستای تاب‌آوری مناطق مختلف کلان‌شهر تبریز حرکت کنند، به وقوع خواهد پیوست.

نتیجه‌گیری: بررسی وضعیت میزان آسیب‌پذیری مناطق مختلف کلان‌شهر تبریز در مواقع بحران زلزله نشان می­دهد که برنامه‌ریزی‌ها، پیش‌بینی‌ها و اقدامات انجام‌شده برای تاب آور ساختن این مناطق، کارایی آن‌چنانی نداشته است. یکی از اهداف اصلی برنامه‌ریزی شهری کاهش آسیب‌پذیری و تاب آور ساختن شهرها در برابر زلزله، است. شناسایی، ارزیابی و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری در برابر زلزله، از اقدام‌های مؤثر در تدوین برنامه‌های کاهش آثار زمین‌لرزه در قالب برنامه‌های مدیریت بحران می‌باشد. در این پژوهش، از بین سه سناریوی پیش روی کلان‌شهر تبریز، تنها سناریو اول (سناریوی طلایی یا همان ارتقاء تاب‌آوری کلان‌شهر تبریز در برابر بحران زلزله) می­تواند شرایط تاب‌آوری مناطق مختلف این کلان‌شهر را در برابر بحران زلزله فراهم نماید. پیش‌فرض‌های اصلی این سناریو کیفیت ساخت و اجرای سازه­ها و توجه به بهسازی و نوسازی ساختمان‌ها به‌ویژه در مناطق با سطح بالای آسیب­پذیری در کلان‌شهر تبریز می­باشد.

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Urban Space and Social Life
Volume 4, Issue 15
February 2026
Pages 103-83
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  • Receive Date: 20 October 2024
  • Revise Date: 14 January 2025
  • Accept Date: 05 March 2025
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