Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
Abstract
Vulnerability to earthquakes is a big issue in the cities of different countries, which has harmful consequences in different dimensions. By identifying the effective factors on reducing vulnerability and resilience against earthquakes, crisis management and reducing the consequences of this hazard can be achieved. Examining the state of vulnerability of different areas of Tabriz metropolis during the earthquake shows that the plans, forecasts and measures taken to make these areas resilient were not that effective. Therefore, the aim of this research is to identify the drivers effective in reducing the vulnerability and resilience of Tabriz metropolis against earthquakes and to develop possible scenarios for the horizon of 1422. This research is applied in terms of purpose, analytical-exploratory in terms of nature, descriptive-survey in terms of data collection method and mixed (quantitative-qualitative) data analysis. The statistical population of the research is 35 interdisciplinary experts in the fields of vulnerability and resilience and the future research approach, who were selected with the purposeful sampling method. In this research, 44 primary factors were extracted and With the structural analysis in the Mikmak software, eleven main factors have been identified as key drivers effective in reducing vulnerability and resilience. Based on the results of the factor impact matrix, out of a total of 3,398 direct impact factors, the variables of the physical sector have had the greatest impact on the future vulnerability of different areas of Tabriz metropolis against the earthquake crisis. Finally, by determining the critical uncertainties through the consensus index as well as the inductive method, three golden, static and critical scenarios have been obtained for the horizon of 1422.
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